The Problem: With a high of 8c (low 6c) in Vancouver, will it be rainy or snowy on Seymour? Sure you can check the alpine forecast via their website but the scientist in me likes to do my own calculations.
The Math: Temperature lapse rates vary depending on the source of a frontal system, however it is safe to assume a MALR of -6c/1000m. The upper runs max out at 1200m and the lower runs sit between 1020-900m.
The Conclusion: No go.
The freezing level should be up around Mystery peak dumping unwanted rain onto those powdery, jib-friendly slopes. Pass holders may not care but I grew up on the Ice Coast and now I'm an unapologetic snob re: snow conditions.
FYI: Vancouver receives 80-90% of it's avg 1,219 mm of precip b/w Oct-April.
WoW.
January 9, 2008
when geologists chitchat
You have to love when a conversation about whether or not to go snowboarding tomorrow evening breaks down into a discussion on adiabtic lapse rates.
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2 comments:
although my technical meterological skills arent as deep as yours years of reading synoptic charts and weather/swell reports for surfing have helped me here. i'm inclined to agree that its not looking so good... if the front was colder itd be awesome... but alas no!
rad, I don't know much about the surf. might have gotten some wet stuff overnight. if only it was a few degrees colder and we'd be hooping it up in knee-deep powder. let's keep fingers crossed for some this weekend.
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